PODIUM PATHWAYS – Analysing the medal chances of Irish boxers following draw
As always, please do not share or tag the boxers in this piece as they approach every tournament with a one punch, one round, one fight at a time mentality.
Perhaps not mentioned enough, the draw plays a huge part in determining a fighter’s Olympics. Seedings are imperfect and boxers that most would say are in the Top 4 in a weight class often go home empty-handed.
Unfair? Probably, but it’s the way it is and the 10 Irish boxers in Paris will all still dream tonight of reaching the podium regardless of what the Swiss Timing computer determined yesterday evening.
Below Irish-Boxing.com goes through each boxer and looks at their likely path to the podium in Paris.
For a more in-depth breakdown of the draw Irish boxing brain, Joe O’Neill LISTEN HEAR
Dean Clancy
Mens’ Light Welterweight
4pm Saturday
The draw hasn’t been too kind to Sligo history-maker Dean Clancy.
Ireland’s 63.5kg fighter will be confident of reaching the medal stages but the path there is extremely tricky.
Clancy opens Ireland’s account against the Jordanian Obada Al-Kasbeh a Rio Olympian. It’s a tough enough opener but nothing too worrying.
A fighter the whole of Paris will know and a fighter Clancy has a history with is the most likely potential Last 16-opponent, Soifane Oumiha. The undefeated pro hasn’t lost an amateur fight since he suffered defeat to Keyshwan Davies in the Tokyo Olympics and is the gold medal favourite.
Knockout the home and tournament favourite and it’s Olympic bronze medal winner Harry Garside the Australia Olympic bronze medal winner or Richard Kovacs a three-time European bronze medal winner for a medal.
Aidan Walsh
Men’s Light Middleweight
10.30am Sunday
Aidan Walsh is another who hasn’t been handed the kindest of draws.
The Toyko Olympian, who is capable of beating anyone on his day, starts with a home favourite and a European medal winner in Makan Traore.
Win that Round of 32 bout and he’s likely to fight Nikolai Terteryan the reigning European Games champion who ended Dean Walsh’s Olympic dream.
A 2023 World welterweight world champion Asadkhuja Muydinkhujaev of Uzbekistan would be the most likely medal fight for the Belfast man if he does add two more Olympic wins to his resume.
Grainne Walsh
Women’s Welterweight
First Fight 4.15pm Sunday
At first glance, it looks like a real Grainne Walsh draw, as in, if she is going to do it she’ll have to do it the hard way.
However, despite needing to win three fights to win a medal the Offaly battler has been handed as nice a pathway as you can in a talent-stacked 66kg class.
First up on Sunday is Anna Hamori a Hungarian with a European Games bronze in her collection, not an easy fight but one Walsh will be favourite going into.
Marissa Williamson of Australia is the likely Last 16 clash, her Pacific gold win makes her look like a threat but she only had to win one fight to secure that medal and wouldn’t boast the pedigree of Walsh and others at the Games.
Reach the quarters and Mary’s boxer would most likely face a tricky test in Imane Khelif. The Algerian won World gold but was later stripped of the medal. The African qualifier has Irish previous having lost to Kellie Harrington in the 2021 Olympics and to Amy Broadhurst in 2022 Worlds final.
Angela Carini an Italian who is around a long time, and beat Desmond en route to the 2021 Olympic should be the final four foe if Walsh was to make it that far.
Jack Marley
Men’s Heavyweight
First Fight 7:15pm Sunday
Jack Marley can move to within one win of a famous medal if he repeats his European Under 22 win over Poland’s Mateusz Bereznicki in the Last 16.
The medal fight would be tricky for the Monkstown man but a bout a top-form Marley would be capable of winning.
One of Davlat Boltaev, a Tajikistan, who won 2023 Asian Games gold or Georgia’s Giorgi Kushitashvili, who won World bronze and Euro gold at 86kg would stand between the Dub and a medal.
Kellie Harrington –
Women’s Lightweight
First Fight Monday 14:45
Olympic Champion Kellie Harrington has landed on the nice side of the lightweight draw.
Such is the talent at 60kg there is no such thing as an easy pathway to a medal but the path laid out for the St Mary’s BC couldn’t have been rockier.
A bye means the gold medal winner awaits the winner of an Italy versus Turkey clash between Alessia Mesiano and Gizem Ozer in the last 16. Harrington has beaten both before.
World silver medal winner Angie Valdez of Colombia looks like the most dangerous medal fight but it could be anyone from Valdez, Donjeta Sadiku of Kosovo and Thailand’s Thanaya Somnuek in the quarters.
The semi-final and silver medal fight would then be one of the most eagerly anticipated bouts of the entire Games. Progress to the final four and the Irish favourite will fight one of two professional world title winners with massive amateur pedigree in either Estelle Moseley or Beatriz Ferreira.
Jenny Lehane –
Women’s Bantamweight
Tuesday 11:30
Jenny Lehane is just two wins away from joining the list of Irish Olympic medal winners courtesy of a bye.
However, the ever-improving DCU talent will need two career-best wins to reach the podium.
Her Last 16 against Yuan Chang of China is a 50-50 clash. Chang is a Youth Olympics gold medal winner, a Tokyo Olympian but is moving up in weight for this tournament.
The European Champion and gold medal favourite Stanimira Petrova of Bulgaria would await the qualified school teacher in the medal fight.
Jude Gallagher –
Men’s Featherweight
First Fight Wednesday 12:30
Two Castles Jude Gallagher is another who just needs two wins to etch his name into Irish folklore after receiving a bye.
He makes his Olympic debut against an Olympic medal winner in Caro Paalam, the Philippine native won Olympic silver in 2021. However, the fact he did at flyweight, beating Brendan Irvine en-route, means the Tyrone man is a slight favourite
International medal winners would await in the quarters with either Vasile Ustoroi of Belgian, a European gold medalist in 2022 and a European Games bronze in 2023 or Charlie Senior an Australian Pacific gold medal winner standing between the Irish fighter and a medal.
The fact Adam Hession, whom Gallagher beat to make himself Irish featherweight number 1, defeated the Belgian would make the Commonwealth Gold medal winner confident if they were to meet.
Aoife O’Rourke –
Women’s Middleweight
Wednesday 20:50
The path to an Olympic medal looks a familiar one for Aoife O’Rourke. Not that the two-time Olympian has reached the podium before, more so she is likely to face two familiar foes in the Last 16 and Quarter Finals if she makes it to the last eight.
Up first on Wednesday is a Elizabeth Wojcik, the Pole she always seems to fight, always has a good fight with, and always manages to beat.
The Roscommon native and one of the Team’s form fighters, has beaten Wojcik on four occasions, although they have always been close and the Poles were very angry with the decision in their most recent encouther.
Navigate the Pole and O’Rourke is likely to face Panama’s Athena Bylon in the Quarters. The 35-year won world gold at welter 10 years ago, but again the older of two decorated boxing sister, O’Rourke has a win over her.
If Bylon isn’t standing between the European champion and a medal, will be Valentina Khalzova of Kazakhstan, a former welterweight who won three World medals across three weights between 2016 and 2023.
Reach the semi and the Westerner will fight one of Cindy Ngamba (Refugee), Tamara Thibeault (Canada) or Davina Michel for silver.
Daina Moorehouse –
Women’s Flyweight
First Fight Thursday 20:00
It’s a case of ‘do you want the good news or the bad news first’ when it comes to Daina Moorehouse’s draw.
The bad news? She has been handed a difficult start. The good news? If the underage graduate gets past her first fight and the last 16, she has a very good chance of medaling.
The Enniskerry BC boxer is straight in against a home fighter and one of France’s big medal hopes in veteran Wassila Lkhadiri.
The 2-0 pro has been medalling at the weight for years and has two European bronze, a World bronze. and a European Games silver in her trophy cabinet. The 28-year-old also holds a split decision win over Moorehouse.
It’s a tough fight but not one Moorehouse won’t believe she can win – and defeat Lkhadiri on Thursday next and the path opens up for a medal.
African Champion Roumaysa Boulam of Algeria is the most likely quarter-final foe, although there is a chance it could be Aira Villegas of the Philippines for bronze, both opponents Moorehouse would be favored to beat.
If she does manage to step onto the podium Buse Cakiroglu of Turkey could await in the semi.
Michaela Walsh –
Female Featherweight
First Fight Friday 14:50
Michaela Walsh is another to have received a bye, meaning she is only two wins away from adding an Olympic medal to her glittering collection.
If she is to step onto the podium, one of Ireland’s most underrated sports stars will have to step over serious obstacles first.
The Belfast featherweight faces the Bulgarian version of herself in a genuine 50-50 in the Last 16.
Svetlana Staneva is a well-travelled amateur veteran, who has been picking up international medals over the years. She comes into the Games on form with 2024 European gold and 2023 World bronze her latest achievements.
Overcome Staneva and a regular World and Asian Championships medal winner from Taiwan, Lin Yu Ting should be waiting in the quarter-final.
